Why people should get out of the market

I think it would be safe to say that I have been a negative person my whole life. Some people would say that I come by it rightly, those are the people who have met my father. But this life long pessimism is not why I think the market will drop even more in the 3rd and 4th quarter of this year. The following 10 reasons are why I am a Realist.

1. The Sub-Prime mess is still being dealt with, and the Alt-A and ARM mortgage mess is going to hit in a huge ugly wave of foreclosure in the next 6-12 months. (We could go on about this for awhile...)

2. Bond Default rates are very high, and are continuing to rise. (Defaulted bonds are the corporate way of saying I can't pay my mortgage).

3. The governments of almost every country are supporting poor fiscal responsibility and encouraging lazy people to continue in laziness (this doesn't stimulate an economy no matter what any politician says).

4. The fall season has historically (I know, I know, the past doesn't dictate the future) been the worst time for the Stock Market. Just about every recession we have ever had started in October or November, including this one.

5. The Short Sellers have covered their positions and shown less interest throughout July. This is a sign that the upward movement is uncalled for and will begin to falter.

6. Insiders for companies are selling their shares in droves, to the tune of 6 to 1 (seller to buyer). If the people that run the companies can see what is going on better than we can... then what do we see here?

7. While company profits have looked good this last quarter, this is largely due to cost cutting, not increased revenue. There is only so much you can cut... what will they cut next quarter?

8. Consumer Savings is going up (this isn't bad, it just means that people aren't spending, thus not 'stimulating' the economy).

9. Un-employment is still high. And if one were to do a little math on their own, you would find that the reported drop of 0.1% (down to 9.4%) was reported poorly by the media. The real unemployment rate is closer to 9.8% (a rise of 0.3%). This number also doesn't take into account the large number of underemployed people (people that have lost their job, but are currently working fewer hours or at less pay).

10. The Dollar is weakening, the Deficit is soaring, and Politicians think this is a good time to present a Health care overhaul that will increase the Deficit further, which will weaken the dollar more...

These things do not bode well for our financial future...

looking for a vacation

I am so tired. I want a vacation so badly. It isn't sleep that I want, I want to not have to worry about my next deadline. Procrastination is going to rear its head soon...

But there is hope for this intrepid banker! For I will return to the land of my education in less than 2 weeks. Therefore, College friends, family lend me your ears! ;) I am coming home... Momma, I'm coming home...

hijacked words

i will be very brief. I am more than slightly irritated by the overuse of certain words when politicians discuss profit. whether discussing Investment banks or Health Insurers, Ms. Pelosi is always calling the profits "obscene" or "immoral" (or both). Just because those words draw attention does not make them accurate. there is NOTHING inherently immoral or obscene about making a profit if you run a company. on top of that, when dealing with Health Care, people really ought to think before they speak. First, despite the problems with our health care system, America is STILL the pinnacle of medical care and treatment. there is no other place on the entire planet that you can receive BETTER care than here. Second, it is NOT the governments job to provide health care. period. if you want health care, go out and get it just like everyone else does you freaking slackers! there are no free lunches, even when people claim there are! suck it up and realize that someone is paying for it. and contrary to your lazy ass opinion, it is NOT a fair share to have someone else pay for it, just cause they can. what is your fair share? what have you contributed? If i bake a pie and use all my own time and ingredients that i purchased, what is your fair share of that pie? ZERO. you don't get any of my pie unless i SAY you do. if you want some of my pie, you can help make it. if you don't help, then SHOVE OFF, you lazy, sack of useless crap, thief.

ok. done.

Words without actions are worth what?

President Obama is awesome as a public speaker. There is no denying that he possesses eloquence in excess. However, for awhile now I have felt that our Commander in Chief is missing something very important. Follow-through. All his pretty speeches are just that, pretty. His rhetoric is spectacular! But I want more than good ideas from a leader, I want action. I want an outcome.

Here is a short list of Obama's checklist.

Pretty speech about the economy? check. Any positive improvement (other than the media that spout crap anyway)? nada. Didn't get the change you were looking for? change the goal. (no one really strives for something when they don't succeed anyway, right? Why would we want a leader to be responsible for what they claim?) Talk to all the leaders of other countries, but don't have any actionable propositions. Done. Condemn Mahmoud (Iran) and let him think about his response until September. Good thought, except we are going to talk to him next week...

At this point President Obama, I don't have to agree with everything you say, but in order to be a good president... you will have to DO something more than give public speeches.

Why Los Angeles is awesome

a couple weeks ago I had my life threatened by a sociopath that must have been dropped on his head as a child. Today? I saw an honest to goodness hillbilly train driver (conductor?)! He was wearing that funny hat they always have in the movies, no shirt, overalls, and a red hand-kerchief in his back pocket! I mean how awesome is that? This is like seeing a real life pirate, or catching a glimpse of a ninja scaling a wall...

which reminds me of the Gymnast Midgets that I saw on Hope street (downtown LA) back in June.

This place has more diversity than anyone could EVER dream of!

Shivers up my spine...

Here comes another story from the train.

I was asked by a stranger to please sit next to her. This was a request, mind you, not a question. She asked, "if [I] would please sit next to [her]." She didn't even know who I was. I smiled politely and showed her my wedding ring. She responded with, "even better."

I just had to ask why she would want a married stranger to sit next to her? Her answer: cause there are some seriously creepy SOB's in this world. I was way too intrigued... I had to sit down.

Friends, this is how I learned that there are some people in this world where, it may have been better if they were never born. I like to think that I am a fairly open-minded person, who has a gift for discerning the light that is (supposedly) in all of us. That is why I stressed "may" earlier... but this man that I am about to tell you all about literally gave me shivers and I wanted to throw up, just from the feelings that I got from him.

She managed to tell me that there is a man that follows her from train car to train car, and that he doesn't catch any of the hints that she gives. That was all she could get out before some guy scared the Hell out of me, by putting his face between our seats from behind and says, "I thought that was you!" He then comes around to the other side of the seats and sits down across from us. I assumed (correctly) that this was our creep. Without telling you every painful detail, and they were painful, I will say this. The man is either socially inept with an utter disregard for personal space (you NEVER touch a woman's thigh like that... ever), or he is a sociopath that does not care whether the poor woman is uncomfortable. This poor lady, tried everything during the first 20 minutes of the ride. She ignored him, she asked him to please not touch her, she told him not to touch her, she said that she was very uncomfortable with his topic of conversation (tip to my single friends, don't talk about how a woman reminds you of a porn that you once saw, she WILL NOT find that flattering... ugh!), and lastly she looked at me with pleading eyes.

I know some of you are wondering why I let it go on for 20 minutes. The only thing I can say is. HE WAS FREAKING CREEPY! I was trying to figure out what was wrong with him. Seriously. I was thinking to myself that he must have been dropped as a child, or abandoned, or made fun of through High School. SOMETHING, must explain why he felt that was a good way to talk to a girl.

Sorry, I digress.

So when she looked to me for help, and there was no mistaking this look, I said to him: "you have made both of us very uncomfortable, please go to another car." I kid you not, he pretended like I hadn't even opened my mouth. Completely ignored me. This actually really bothered me, I hate to be so poignantly ignored. So before I could stop myself, I let something slip (my family knows about my Turrets). It wasn't the nicest thing, but it didn't include any profanity. He didn't ignore that, oh no, he looked at me and said, "...I have killed animals bigger than you." Then he SMILED at her, as though to disarm her.

It was at this point that I stood up, offered my hand to the damsel, and we left that train car. He tried to get up and follow, but I pushed him back into his seat, leaned close, and as calmly as I could, "I am not an injured animal that you chained in your garage, you psycho. If you follow us, I will break your face." Posturing over, I quickly escorted her to a different car.

When we arrived in LA, I walked her to the Sheriffs that were on the platform and told them the story. They said they would escort her to where she was going, and that one of them would go talk to the man (who was waiting about 30 yards away. *shiver*).

So everyone, if I happen to go missing... look for the fifty-odd year old that rides the Orange County line, that wears 80's style prescription glasses, and has a lumpy nose. If I saw in the paper that this guy had been kidnapping and killing people, I would not be surprised. He honest to goodness, scared the crap out of me. So creepy...

Lemonade? what a load of crap.

recently i was told something that i am sure we all hear often. "when life gives you lemons, make lemonade." but, just think about how dumb that is... no, really, think about it.

lemonade is not just lemon juice. it has water and sugar as well... lots of it. water dilutes, and sugar sweetens. so when life gives us lemons (something bitter) how the crap are you supposed to make something sweet out of that, with out having... well, something sweet. and if you have something sweet, then you don't really have a bitter situation after all, do you?

i know... i am a hopeless Cynic.